I am taking data from arcgis.com and using this to calculate infection and mortality rates for some of more seriously infected countries, US UK, Italy, Iran and Spain.
Then I am calculating infection and mortality rates in China based on rates of above countries. Of these, only Iran has poorer infrastructure and unreliable figures. All other countries including even much hated US has much better health system, free press, better data collection, less pollution, less population density and are better than China in every single factor like elderly population which can affect these figures.
The epidemic started in China first and no one had any clue about existence of disease (suppressed information) let alone treat it. At the very least, numbers of Italy and China should match. Even the test kits that China is exporting have 80% failure rates.
It’s quite clear that China should have a much much larger number of causalities. To be very conservative, I am comparing China with the above mentioned countries and posting figures accordingly. Actual death toll in China should be in a few 100s of thousands if not millions.
This is from 21st March. Will add more to this post as numbers change.
and this from 27th March